Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 24.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 26.5 | 77% |
| Lions vs. Dolphins | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 28.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 65% |
| O/U 30.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 32.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| O/U 36.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 38.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 40.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| O/U 42.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 44.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 46.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 48.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| O/U 50.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 54.5 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| O/U 60.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 1% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 1% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Lions vs. Dolphins. In the upcoming NFL football game between Lions and Dolphins, scheduled for November 8 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if Lions win the game. This market will resolve to "Dolphins" i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.8M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Lions vs. Dolphins spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Lions vs. Dolphins" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →