Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| O/U 32.5 | 81% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 81% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 74% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 63% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 58% |
| O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 42.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Moneyline | 48% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 46% |
| O/U 43.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| O/U 44.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 47.5 | 35% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 48.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 21% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 20% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 20% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| Safety? | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Broncos vs. Chiefs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 45% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-15T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $8.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →