Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 84% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| O/U 224.5 | 80% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 76% |
| O/U 227.5 | 75% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 73% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| O/U 230.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 231.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 66% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 62% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 62% |
| O/U 234.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| O/U 235.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| O/U 236.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 238.5 | 54% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 53% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 52% |
| O/U 239.5 | 52% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 50% |
| O/U 240.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| O/U 243.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| O/U 246.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 32% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 28% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 27% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 23% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 21% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 19% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Mavericks vs. Pacers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 84%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers". If the game is po…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $258K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Mavericks vs. Pacers spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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