Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 223.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 71% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Race to 10 | 69% |
| Race to 30 | 69% |
| Race to 20 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 62% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 54% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| O/U 235.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 237.5 | 44% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| O/U 240.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 242.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| O/U 245.5 | 31% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 24.5 | 31% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 29% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 248.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 22% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: timberwolves vs. magic 74%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "M…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $102K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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