Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 85% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 48% |
| O/U 238.5 | 47% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 43% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Grizzlies vs. Warriors. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $508K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Warriors spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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