Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| O/U 36.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 81% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 77% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 72% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 45.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 61% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 49.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 50.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| O/U 51.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 61.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| O/U 63.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| O/U 65.5 | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 67.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: commanders vs. 49ers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This mar…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $134K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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