Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| O/U 224.5 | 76% |
| O/U 227.5 | 72% |
| O/U 230.5 | 65% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 58% |
| Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| O/U 235.5 | 55% |
| Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 236.5 | 52% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | 51% |
| O/U 237.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cade Cunningham: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Duncan Robinson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duncan Robinson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duncan Robinson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Duncan Robinson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 238.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| O/U 243.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 15.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 35% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5 | 34% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 33% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 246.5 | 32% |
| Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| John Collins: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Duren: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| John Collins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 19% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| John Collins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Bobby Portis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Bobby Portis: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Duren: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| John Collins: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Cade Cunningham: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| John Collins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 81% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Pistons vs. Heat. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 8:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $75K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Pistons vs. Heat spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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