Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 88% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 65% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 55% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 55% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 47% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 47% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir lesen Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props aus vier Plattform-Perspektiven: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-Exchange), Betfair Exchange (Sportbörse), Smarkets (Tausch-Wettbörse). Polymarkets Live-Mid ist die kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Einzahlungswege, damit Sie die Plattform wählen können, die zu Ihrer Jurisdiktion und Trade-Größe passt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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Jetzt „Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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