Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots | 100% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 97% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 21% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 20% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Luca Zidane: 5+ saves | 8% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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