Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 90% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 90% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir lesen Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props aus vier Plattform-Perspektiven: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-Exchange), Betfair Exchange (Sportbörse), Smarkets (Tausch-Wettbörse). Polymarkets Live-Mid ist die kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Einzahlungswege, damit Sie die Plattform wählen können, die zu Ihrer Jurisdiktion und Trade-Größe passt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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