Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 95% |
| Spread -23.5 | 95% |
| Spread -7.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 94% |
| Spread -26.5 | 94% |
| Spread -20.5 | 93% |
| Spread -4.5 | 92% |
| Spread -17.5 | 92% |
| Spread -24.5 | 92% |
| Spread -13.5 | 91% |
| Spread -16.5 | 91% |
| O/U 38.5 | 91% |
| Spread -27.5 | 90% |
| O/U 40.5 | 89% |
| Spread -5.5 | 88% |
| Spread -29.5 | 87% |
| Spread -30.5 | 87% |
| Spread -31.5 | 83% |
| O/U 42.5 | 83% |
| O/U 44.5 | 81% |
| Spread -33.5 | 81% |
| Spread -14.5 | 77% |
| Spread -34.5 | 77% |
| Spread -21.5 | 76% |
| Spread -3.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 75% |
| O/U 46.5 | 75% |
| Spread -0.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| Spread -6.5 | 74% |
| Spread -10.5 | 74% |
| Spread -35.5 | 74% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -36.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Spread -37.5 | 71% |
| O/U 48.5 | 68% |
| Spread -38.5 | 68% |
| Spread -39.5 | 65% |
| O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 63% |
| Notre Dame O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| Spread -40.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 62% |
| Notre Dame O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| Spread -41.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 61% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Notre Dame O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -42.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 55% |
| Spread -43.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 53% |
| Spread -44.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Micah Gilbert: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Rice O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Aneyas Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Faison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nolan James Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Carr: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Flanagan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kedren Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaden Greathouse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mylan Graham: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Flanigan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyvonn Byars: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jacurri Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braylen Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Payton Matthews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elijah Burress: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Jeffery: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DAndre Hardeman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davis Lane Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ben Grice: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Morgan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Max Mosey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| Notre Dame O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| Spread -45.5 | 47% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 30.5 | 46% |
| Notre Dame O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| Spread -46.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Rice O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Rice 1H O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -47.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 40% |
| Notre Dame O/U 52.5 | 39% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -48.5 | 39% |
| Notre Dame O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -28.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -29.5 | 36% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| Spread -49.5 | 35% |
| Notre Dame O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 34% |
| Spread -50.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -22.5 | 33% |
| Spread -51.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 29% |
| Spread -52.5 | 28% |
| Rice O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Rice O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| Spread -54.5 | 24% |
| Rice O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| Spread -57.5 | 17% |
| O/U 68.5 | 16% |
| Spread -58.5 | 16% |
| Rice O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 10.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 12.5 | 13% |
| Spread -60.5 | 12% |
| O/U 70.5 | 11% |
| O/U 72.5 | 11% |
| Spread -61.5 | 11% |
| O/U 74.5 | 9% |
| Spread -64.5 | 6% |
| Rice vs. Notre Dame | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Rice vs. Notre Dame — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 95%. In the upcoming college football game between Rice and Notre Dame, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rice" if Rice win the game. This market will resolve to "Notre …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $115K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir lesen Prognose: Rice vs. Notre Dame aus vier Plattform-Perspektiven: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-Exchange), Betfair Exchange (Sportbörse), Smarkets (Tausch-Wettbörse). Polymarkets Live-Mid ist die kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Einzahlungswege, damit Sie die Plattform wählen können, die zu Ihrer Jurisdiktion und Trade-Größe passt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Rice vs. Notre Dame" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →