Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Rice 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 36.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Rice O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| Rice O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Rice 1H O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| Rice 1H O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 91% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| O/U 42.5 | 83% |
| O/U 44.5 | 82% |
| O/U 28.5 | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 76% |
| O/U 46.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| O/U 48.5 | 63% |
| O/U 50.5 | 53% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Rice O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Rice O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Rice 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| O/U 52.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| O/U 58.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 33% |
| O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 64.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| Spread -27.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Rice vs. Fresno State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 35% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $552K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Rice vs. Fresno State" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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