Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Texas O/U 18.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Ohio State O/U 18.5 | 74% |
| Ohio State O/U 17.5 | 74% |
| Texas O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 2H Moneyline | 67% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 67% |
| Ohio State O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 44.5 | 63% |
| Texas O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Texas O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| Ohio State O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 62% |
| Texas O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| Ohio State O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Bo Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Ohio State O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread: Texas (-1.5) | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Devin McCuin: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Isaiah West: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Texas 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chris Henry Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon Inniss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Derrek Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian Sayin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Simon: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nate Roberts: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Welcing: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Parker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Townsend: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brock Boyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State vs. Texas | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Ohio State O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Texas O/U 27.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Ohio State O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Texas O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| Ohio State O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Texas O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Ohio State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Jeremiah Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| Ohio State O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 26% |
| Texas O/U 31.5 | 26% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| Spread -27.5 | 16% |
| O/U 66.5 | 16% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Legend Bey: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| Spread -34.5 | 14% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -15.5 | 10% |
| Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| Spread -31.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: ohio state vs. texas 94%. In the upcoming college football game between Ohio State and Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio State" if Ohio State win the game. Th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $139K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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