Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| O/U 41.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Fresno State O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State | 56% |
| O/U 43.5 | 55% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| 2H Moneyline | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 30% |
| O/U 75.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| O/U 71.5 | 28% |
| O/U 73.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 26% |
| O/U 67.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Fresno State vs. San Diego State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 48% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-18T02:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $194K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Fresno State vs. San Diego State" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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