Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 69% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 65% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 61% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 58% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 55% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 45% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: France vs. Sweden - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 94%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Vergleichsseite vergleicht Prognose: France vs. Sweden - Player Props spezifisch zwischen Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange und Smarkets. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch ohne Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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