Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 43% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Spain vs. Austria - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
- Welche Plattform unterstützt Klarna/Sofort?
- Direkt: keine. Polymarket akzeptiert nur USDC on Polygon. PolyGram bietet eine Fiat-On-Ramp via Klarna oder Sofort (DE/AT/CH) und konvertiert intern zu USDC für das Polymarket-Orderbuch. T+1 Bearbeitung.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Austria - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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