Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir lesen Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props aus vier Plattform-Perspektiven: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-Exchange), Betfair Exchange (Sportbörse), Smarkets (Tausch-Wettbörse). Polymarkets Live-Mid ist die kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Einzahlungswege, damit Sie die Plattform wählen können, die zu Ihrer Jurisdiktion und Trade-Größe passt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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