Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 38.5 | 95% |
| O/U 40.5 | 93% |
| O/U 42.5 | 89% |
| O/U 44.5 | 88% |
| Spread -13.5 | 87% |
| Missouri State O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 46.5 | 86% |
| Spread -16.5 | 82% |
| Spread -17.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Spread -19.5 | 79% |
| O/U 48.5 | 79% |
| O/U 50.5 | 76% |
| Spread -20.5 | 75% |
| Missouri State O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 52.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| Spread -23.5 | 69% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| Spread -25.5 | 63% |
| Spread -26.5 | 61% |
| O/U 56.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Spread -27.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| Spread -28.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -29.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -30.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| O/U 60.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| SMU O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Spread -31.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| SMU O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 62.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| Spread -32.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -33.5 | 41% |
| Spread -34.5 | 40% |
| O/U 64.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -35.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 36% |
| Spread -36.5 | 35% |
| Spread -37.5 | 33% |
| O/U 66.5 | 32% |
| O/U 68.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Spread -38.5 | 28% |
| Spread -39.5 | 28% |
| Spread -40.5 | 27% |
| Spread -41.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 70.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 72.5 | 20% |
| Spread -44.5 | 17% |
| Spread -42.5 | 14% |
| Spread -47.5 | 14% |
| O/U 74.5 | 14% |
| O/U 76.5 | 13% |
| O/U 78.5 | 12% |
| Spread -48.5 | 11% |
| Spread -50.5 | 8% |
| Spread -51.5 | 8% |
| Spread -54.5 | 6% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Missouri State vs. SMU — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 95%. In the upcoming college football game between Missouri State and SMU, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Missouri State" if Missouri State win the game. This market …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $155K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir lesen Prognose: Missouri State vs. SMU aus vier Plattform-Perspektiven: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-Exchange), Betfair Exchange (Sportbörse), Smarkets (Tausch-Wettbörse). Polymarkets Live-Mid ist die kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebühren, KYC, Settlement-Währung und Einzahlungswege, damit Sie die Plattform wählen können, die zu Ihrer Jurisdiktion und Trade-Größe passt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Settlement ist der größte Unterschied zwischen den vier Plattformen: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (sofort), Kalshi USD über CFTC (T+1), Betfair und Smarkets in lokaler Währung über Bank-Withdrawal (T+1 bis T+3). On-chain Settlement ist deutlich schneller — wer auf Polymarkets Orderbuch zugreift, hat USDC binnen Minuten auf der Wallet.
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Welche Plattform hat die tiefste Liquidität?
- Polymarket — mit deutlichem Abstand. Top-Märkte erreichen $50-500 Mio Volumen, Kalshi ~$200 Mio kumuliert, Betfair ähnlich. Bei tiefer Liquidität bewegt Ihr Trade die Quote weniger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Plattform ist in Deutschland zugänglich?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Kalshi ist US-only. Betfair und Smarkets sind in DE/AT/CH geo-blockiert. PolyGram hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint und leitet zu Polymarkets Orderbuch ohne Gebühren.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Missouri State vs. SMU" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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