Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 99% |
| Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| Spread -5.5 | 99% |
| Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| Spread -7.5 | 97% |
| Spread -13.5 | 97% |
| Rutgers O/U 23.5 | 97% |
| Spread -8.5 | 96% |
| Spread -10.5 | 95% |
| Spread -14.5 | 94% |
| O/U 35.5 | 94% |
| Spread -16.5 | 93% |
| Spread -17.5 | 93% |
| O/U 37.5 | 93% |
| Spread -20.5 | 92% |
| O/U 39.5 | 90% |
| Rutgers O/U 26.5 | 88% |
| O/U 41.5 | 85% |
| O/U 43.5 | 84% |
| O/U 45.5 | 80% |
| O/U 47.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| O/U 49.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| O/U 51.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| O/U 53.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 56% |
| O/U 55.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Howard O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Howard O/U 32.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Howard 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Howard 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Howard 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Howard 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 51% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 51% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Howard 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Howard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Howard Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Howard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Howard Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Rutgers Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Howard 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Howard 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Howard Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Howard 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 43% |
| O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| O/U 63.5 | 32% |
| O/U 67.5 | 28% |
| O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| O/U 71.5 | 16% |
| O/U 73.5 | 15% |
| Howard O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 10% |
| Howard O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -0.5 | 4% |
| Howard O/U 23.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -2.5 | 3% |
| Howard vs. Rutgers | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 99% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Howard vs. Rutgers. In the upcoming college football game between Howard and Rutgers, scheduled for September 25 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Howard" if Howard win the game. This market will resolve to "Rut…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $147K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein 4-Plattform-Snapshot. Polymarkets Live-Mid-Preis ist die einzige Echtzeit-Datenquelle; alles andere ist statisch gepflegt. Bei Plattform-Attributen vertrauen wir auf die offiziellen Anbieter-Seiten als Quelle. Quote-Spalten werden nur ausgefüllt, wo wir Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket settelt über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon. Ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, das Two-Hour-Window läuft, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC aus.
Kalshi settelt USD via die CFTC-regulierte Clearinghouse — die saubere Variante, mit höherem KYC-Aufwand. Betfair Exchange zahlt in der Konto-Währung (GBP/EUR), abzüglich 2-5 % Kommission. Smarkets folgt dem gleichen Modell wie Betfair, mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2 %).
Häufige Fragen
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — welche ist besser?
- Hängt von Ihrem Standort ab. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert und US-only mit voller KYC. Polymarket ist global, on-chain, ohne KYC bis $1.500. Polymarket hat ~10x höhere Liquidität, aber höheres regulatorisches Risiko.
- Was kostet Polymarket vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% Gebühren, nur Polygon-Netzwerkkosten (~$0,01/Trade). Kalshi: bis zu 7% pro Trade plus Spread. Für hochfrequente Trader ist Polymarket dramatisch günstiger.
- Ist Betfair eine Polymarket-Alternative?
- Nur eingeschränkt. Betfair Exchange ist UK-fokussiert mit Sportwetten-Schwerpunkt; sie hatten zwar Politik-Märkte, aber dünne Liquidität gegenüber Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist mit Smarkets als Alternative?
- Smarkets ist eine UK-Wettbörse mit niedrigerer Standard-Kommission (2%) als Betfair. Liquidität bei politischen Märkten ist geringer als Polymarket, vergleichbar mit Kalshi. Geo-Block in DE/AT/CH.
- Sind alle Plattformen reguliert?
- Nein. Kalshi ist CFTC-reguliert (US). Betfair und Smarkets sind UK Gambling Commission lizensiert. Polymarket operiert ohne explizite Regulierung — was eine andere Risiko-Profil ist als regulierter Sportwetten-Anbieter.
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